Do I want the #1 overall pick or would being in the middle of the draft better? This has been an ongoing debate for years as there is value at each pick in the first round, but the problem lies with determining whose value is higher than everyone else's.

Who goes #1?  LaDainian Tomlinson is the frontrunner, but what if you are in a Keeper League? Does Adrian Peterson get the nod?  What is going on with Steven Jackson?  I have seen him ranked at #2, #3 and as far down as #9 overall!!!  Should we be worried about his injury in 07?  Does LJ deserve to be a top 5 pick?  Where should Randy Moss fall in the 1st round?  Can Brady put on a show again this year?

Let's break down the top scorers from 2007 (using the grid above): There were nine players that broke the 300 point mark in fantasy points and would you believe that only one running back made it into the top 9?? There is no doubt that the RB position is important but we may start to see 3 QB's projected in the first round this year along with possibly 2 or 3 WR's. This was unheard of three years ago as the RB position dominated the first and sometimes 2nd round in years past.

Top Scorers of 2007

1. Tom Brady - QB (NE)
2. Tony Romo - QB (DAL)
3. Peyton Manning - QB (IND)
4. Chargers DEF
5. Randy Moss - WR (NE)
6. Brett Favre - QB (GB)
7. LaDainian Tomlinson - RB (SD)
8. Patriots DEF
9. Drew Brees - QB (NO)

Why the sudden change?  I believe that it stems from the recent decrease in TD's by the top RB's in the league.  Back in early 2000's when you had a few RB's scoring over 20 TD's this made the RB position a no brainer for top fantasy pick.  But now it seems many teams are trying to save their star RB's by adding other solid players to help carry the load and to also help their top investment make it to the playoffs without injury.   Many positions in the NFL can physically wear you down, but it seems that this affects a RB more so than other positions.  A RB has a shelf life of about 4 to 6 years and when they reach their breaking point they vastly deteriorate. (see Shaun Alexander).

The old analogy used to be to take your RB's early because everything that would be left at the RB position in later rounds would be much weaker in comparison to the leftovers at the WR, TE, and QB positions.

The NFL is an exciting and ever changing game.  It has to be.  Defenses are getting faster and smarter every year and to combat that, offenses have to come up with new schemes and ways to attack. Recently this new wave of attack has been through the air.  Even with QB's only getting 4 points per TD the top QB's in the league are clearly ahead of all RB's who score 6 points per TD.  This is evident by last year's Top Scorers.  Can LT still score 25 TD's?  Sure, but it is highly unlikely along with any other RB getting to that feat again.  With the new emergence of the pass happy offense, the smash mouth running styles of many teams are put on hold until the colder months and playoff games when they can have their RB at full strength.

So, where do you want to be in your fantasy draft order?  Don't get caught up in your favorite website's fantasy rankings as many of these sites differ greatly in their "opinion" as to who will have a stellar year in 2008. We will visit that later in this article.

My personal strategy has always been to draft later in the first round.  Where I value certain players may not match my opponents and so if I happen to draft #8 of a 10 team league I get to snag the RB I want and then potentially get a 2nd 1st round projection (in my mind) only 4 picks later.  Having the #1 overall pick is nice when you are sure LT will score 25 TD's, but he did not come close in 2007 and then you have a long wait until the 2nd round.  Granted, he had a solid year and still led all RB's in TD's but he came in #7 overall in fantasy points.  If I get the #1 pick this year though I will be hard pressed not to take LT.  There is no way I can justify taking another RB or even stretch for a Tom Brady at #1 until LT is unseated as fantasy king. 

Looking at the top 9 scorers above I want to make it clear that I am not insisting that these 9 players should be drafted in the first round.  It is merely a tool to show that the QB position has really caught fire recently in fantasy.  I do not think that taking a defense in the first 10 rounds is smart either because the difference from the #1 DEF and the #15 defense is very small.  In hindsight though, the point disparity between the #1 RB and #15 RB is significant. In 2007, the #1 WR scored 319 points and the #15 WR scored 159 points.  That is difference of 160 points!  In comparison, the #1 DEF scored 325 points and the #15 DEF scored 241 points.  This difference of only 84 points and would equate to losing 5 points per week as a fantasy owner if you take a defense high in the draft rather than shoring up your WR corps with a #2, #3, or #4 WR.  How many times have you lost a fantasy week by less than 5 points?

Now let's take a look at the popular sports sites and how they are all ranking The Top 10 in this year's fantasy crop as of June 2nd 2008:

NFL.com

• GM For a Day: AFC South
• GM For a Day: AFC North
• GM For a Day: AFC East
• GM For a Day: AFC West